Private space flight has grown tremendously in the 13 years since SpaceX made the first private orbital launch. I wrote about the new space race two years before that, and now I want to take a look at space again. In this post, I look at what I got right and wrong 15 years ago.
The most obvious error is the omission of SpaceX, which I didn’t mention at all. I guess I had heard of them, but not thought they were significant? They had attempted an orbital launch with Falcon 1 by the time I wrote the post, but that failed, as would two more attempts in the next two years. Still, their success since then has been almost incredible. Also missing is Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin, which was already six years old when I wrote the post.
I did mention Armadillo Aerospace, which has since shut down. I don’t know exactly why: cash seems like the most likely explanation, but perhaps they realised they were heading down the wrong technical path, or too many of the core people wanted to mover on? Musk has certainly been complimentary about Armadillo Aerospace CEO John Carmack’s engineering since then. Branson, Musk, Carmack and Bezos all made plenty of their own money doing something else before turning to space flight; in 2006 I would have struggled to say why one or the other should be the most successful. If forced to pick, I might have chosen Bezos since he had the most cash to dedicate to the project, or perhaps Branson for having already demonstrated success in multiple different industries.
On the topic of Branson, I did mention Virgin Galactic:
Scaled Composites … said they would win the [X-Prize] with SpaceShip One, and in October 2004 they did. …
Since their victory, work has begun on a larger follow-up ship, SpaceShip Two. Five of these will be bought by the ambitiously titled Virgin Galactic, and should enter commerical service in 2008. A spaceport is being built. Virgin’s commerical pilots are being trained to pilot rocket ships. The whole thing has an air of unreality to it. The best is yet to come, though: if SpaceShip Two is successful, SpaceShip Three will be orbit-capable, and Virgin Galactic are said to have plans to create an orbital hotel.
Little of this came to pass, and none of it happened on the predicted schedule. The first passenger-carrying flight for Virgin Galactic was in July of this year, 13 years later than predicted. Just yesterday, they announced that there will be no commercial passenger flights until at least Q4 of next year. I don’t remember any discussion of an orbit-capable SpaceShip Three since then. It could be that launching from under the wing of a conventional aeroplane is just too difficult for taking large loads to orbit. I can’t think of any other company that is taking this approach.
Of course, all of this beyond SpaceShip One is talk, but I’m buying it right now anyway. Many of the X Prize competition teams have continued their development programmes – there could be a plethora of options for private orbital spaceflight within twenty years.
This was some scepticism, but not enough. It seems like I had more confidence in one particular company than was justifiable. Still, a “plethora” of options within 20 years is looking good. As of today, three private companies have made successful orbital launches: SpaceX (131 successful launches), Rocket Labs (18 successful launches), and Virgin Orbit (two successful launches). Astra and Firefly Aerospace have both had failed launches this year with rockets of their own design; I anticipate they will reach orbit within a couple of years, if they don’t run out of money. Then there is a long list of companies planning to reach orbit that have not yet finished building their rockets. With five more years I would expect at least a few more to succeed.
Then I touched on government-funded spaceflight:
Things are stirring again in even in the long-moribund area of government-backed space travel. China launched its first taikonaut in 2003, and has long range plans to get to the Moon by around 2020. Seemingly in response, NASA has been directed to put people on the Moon and Mars in the same timeframe. Projects such as these are likely to run well over time and budget, but if the political will is there, they can be made to work.
China hasn’t yet got humans further than its own space station, but that’s impressive by itself. It also managed a robotic landing on Mars. NASA meanwhile has done great science, but continued to be underwhelming in human flight. Their Space Launch System is still not proven in flight, and the Artemis program for crewed lunar landings seems unlikely to hit its 2024 target. There are some cool ideas in there, and I would love to see people go back to the Moon this decade, but I think NASA will need more help, more money, and more time than they have currently planned for. Political support (= money) for big NASA programs has been variable in the past, and I wonder if it can be relied on, if private companies are seen to be making most of the running.
Overall, I think I was wrong on the specifics, but right about the general direction. I’ll go into what I think will happen in the next 15 or so years in another post.